Primary
Democratic Primary
Held June 23, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cait Conley ✓ | 23,081 | 49.6% | |
| Beth Davidson | 14,817 | 31.8% | |
| Effie Phillips-Staley | 7,109 | 15.3% | |
| John Cappello | 749 | 1.6% | |
| Michael Sacks | 746 | 1.6% | |
| Total Write-ins | 44 | 0.1% |
Republican Primary
Held June 23, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Lawler ✓ | — | — |
Full calendar and every race: New York primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Mike Lawler Nominee Incumbent
Republican
General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) partisan·R R-sponsored | 2026-09-30 | 400 LV | ±4.90 | Cait Conley 47.00% | Mike Lawler 50.00% |
| Emerson College 2024 err 2.7 | 2026-09-29 | 400 LV | ±4.90 | Cait Conley 48.00% | Mike Lawler 46.00% |
| co/efficient (R) partisan·R | 2026-07-22 | 1292 LV | ±2.70 | Cait Conley 45.00% | Mike Lawler 50.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 NY-17 House race?
Mike Lawler leads Cait Conley 48.7% to 46.7% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+2.0 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 NY-17 House race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 NY-17 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from McLaughlin & Associates (R) (completed September 30, 2026), found Cait Conley (D) at 47% and Mike Lawler (R) at 50%.
When is the 2026 NY-17 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- PROGRESSIVE CHAMPIONS PAC GOP-aligned $1,500,000
- VOTEVETS Dem-aligned $1,076,875
- NEW DEMOCRAT MAJORITY Dem-aligned $522,759
- AFT SOLIDARITY Dem-aligned $150,000
- AMERICA PAC GOP-aligned $10,627
- NEW YORKERS FOR A RETURN TO FAIR AND HONEST GOVERNMENT Dem-aligned $6,600
- ACTIVATE AMERICA Dem-aligned $3,138
- RURAL FREEDOM NETWORK Dem-aligned $761
- PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES Dem-aligned $432
- DMFI PAC Dem-aligned $382
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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