New York District 17

NY-17 • 2026 Election
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Primary

Primary held June 23, 2026.

Democratic Primary

CandidateVotes%
Cait Conley 22,749 49.5%
Beth Davidson 14,671 31.9%
Effie Phillips-Staley 7,012 15.3%
Michael Sacks 742 1.6%
John Cappello 740 1.6%

Full calendar and every race: New York primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
Mike Lawler
Party
Republican
Current Rating
Likely D our polls experts: Toss-up
Open Seat
No
Cook PVI
D+2

PollingSource Rating

Likely D
Our polling average D+6.0 · 1 polls

General Election Polling Trend

PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.

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Expert Ratings

Cook Political Report

Toss-up

Inside Elections

Tilt R

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Toss-up

Candidates

Cait Conley

Cait Conley Nominee

Democrat
Total Raised: $4,317,457
Cash on Hand: $1,319,156

General Election Polling Average

Democrat
51.0%
Republican
45.0%
Margin
D+6.0
Last Poll
Jul 1, 2026

Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →

PollsterDateSampleMoEDemRep
FM3 Research (D) partisan·D 2026-07-01 509 LV Cait Conley 51.00% Mike Lawler 45.00%

Questions About This Race

Who is winning the 2026 NY-17 House race?

Cait Conley leads Mike Lawler 51% to 45% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+6.0 margin based on 1 poll from the last 90 days.

Is the 2026 NY-17 House race competitive?

It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the PollingSource polling average rates it Likely D, meaning Democrats are clearly favored but an upset is not impossible.

What does the latest poll of the 2026 NY-17 House race say?

The most recent public poll, from FM3 Research (D) (completed July 1, 2026), found Cait Conley (D) at 51% and Mike Lawler (R) at 45%.

When is the 2026 NY-17 House race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

Independent Expenditures Updated 6 hours ago

$3,252,926
Total IE Spending
$1,750,036
Support
$1,502,890
Oppose

Top Spenders

Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →

Race News

No news coverage yet for this race.