CBS News
20 scored general-election polls (2014–2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 14 | 2.6 pts | D+2.4 | 27% |
| 2018 | 1 | 0.5 pts | D+0.5 | 100% |
| 2016 | 3 | 4.9 pts | D+4.9 | 67% |
| 2014 | 2 | 1.4 pts | R+1.4 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-28 | PA President | Even | R+1.7 | 1.7 | — |
| 2024-10-28 | PA President | Even | R+1.7 | 1.7 | — |
| 2024-10-25 | National President | D+1.0 | R+1.5 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-25 | National President | D+1.0 | R+1.5 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-16 | AZ President | R+3.0 | R+5.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-11 | National President | D+3.0 | R+1.5 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-24 | GA President | R+2.0 | R+2.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-20 | National President | D+4.0 | R+1.5 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-06 | WI President | D+2.0 | R+0.9 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-06 | MI President | D+1.0 | R+1.4 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-06 | PA President | Even | R+1.7 | 1.7 | — |
| 2024-08-16 | National President | D+3.0 | R+1.5 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-08-02 | National President | D+1.0 | R+1.5 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-07-18 | National President | R+3.0 | R+1.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-16 | National Generic Ballot | D+9.0 | D+8.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-04 | National President | D+4.0 | D+2.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-14 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | R+1.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-14 | National President | D+9.0 | D+2.2 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-25 | National Generic Ballot | R+8.0 | R+5.6 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-05 | National Generic Ballot | R+6.0 | R+5.6 | 0.4 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.