Washington Post
10 scored general-election polls (2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10 | 2.2 pts | D+2.2 | 50% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-30 | PA President | D+1.0 | R+1.7 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-30 | PA President | D+1.0 | R+1.7 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-28 | MI President | D+1.0 | R+1.4 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-28 | MI President | D+1.0 | R+1.4 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-23 | VA President | D+6.0 | D+5.8 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-23 | VA President | D+6.0 | D+5.8 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-07 | OH President | R+6.0 | R+11.2 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-29 | NC President | R+2.0 | R+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-16 | PA President | D+1.0 | R+1.7 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-08 | VA President | D+8.0 | D+5.8 | 2.2 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.