Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research
10 scored general-election polls (2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10 | 1.9 pts | D+1.9 | 75% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-15 | NV President | R+2.0 | R+3.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-08 | MI President | R+1.0 | R+1.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-01 | AZ President | R+2.0 | R+5.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-24 | PA President | D+2.0 | R+1.7 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-17 | NC President | R+3.0 | R+3.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-14 | WI President | D+1.0 | R+0.9 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 2024-08-20 | MD President | D+32.0 | D+28.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-08-11 | MI President | Even | R+1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| 2024-07-31 | GA President | Even | R+2.2 | 2.2 | — |
| 2024-07-28 | OH President | R+10.0 | R+11.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.