Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research
10 scored general-election polls (2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10 | 1.9 pts | D+1.9 | 75% |
Recent 2026 polls
The firm's polls from the last 30 days (results aren't in yet, so these aren't scored — see the 2026 vs.-consensus column on the summary).
| Date | Race | Sample | Matchup | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | ME Senate | 982 LV | Troy Jackson 50.00% – Susan Collins 47.00% | D+3.0 |
| 2026-09-22 | ME Governor | 982 LV | Hannah Pingree 52.00% – Bobby Charles 39.00% | D+13.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | NC Senate | 1806 LV | Roy Cooper 53.00% – Michael Whatley 42.00% | D+11.0 |
| 2026-09-11 | AK-0 House | 800 LV | Eric Hafner 9.00% – Nick Begich III 45.00% | R+36.0 |
| 2026-09-11 | AK Senate | 800 LV | Mary Peltola 45.00% – Dan S. Sullivan 41.00% | D+4.0 |
| 2026-09-11 | AK Governor | 800 LV | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 40.00% – Bernadette Wilson 20.00% | D+20.0 |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-15 | NV President | R+2.0 | R+3.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-08 | MI President | R+1.0 | R+1.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-01 | AZ President | R+2.0 | R+5.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-24 | PA President | D+2.0 | R+1.7 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-17 | NC President | R+3.0 | R+3.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-14 | WI President | D+1.0 | R+0.9 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 2024-08-20 | MD President | D+32.0 | D+28.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-08-11 | MI President | Even | R+1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| 2024-07-31 | GA President | Even | R+2.2 | 2.2 | — |
| 2024-07-28 | OH President | R+10.0 | R+11.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.