Wall Street Journal
11 scored general-election polls (2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 11 | 2.6 pts | D+1.5 | 56% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-22 | National President | R+3.0 | R+1.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-22 | National President | R+3.0 | R+1.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-08 | NC President | Even | R+3.2 | 3.2 | — |
| 2024-10-08 | NV President | R+6.0 | R+3.1 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-08 | GA President | D+2.0 | R+2.2 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-08 | AZ President | D+2.0 | R+5.5 | 7.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-08 | WI President | Even | R+0.9 | 0.9 | — |
| 2024-10-08 | MI President | D+2.0 | R+1.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-08 | PA President | R+1.0 | R+1.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-08-28 | National President | D+1.0 | R+1.5 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-07-25 | National President | R+2.0 | R+1.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.