TargetSmart
9 scored general-election polls (2016–2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1 | 5.8 pts | D+5.8 | 100% |
| 2018 | 2 | 7.9 pts | D+7.9 | 100% |
| 2016 | 6 | 7.3 pts | D+7.3 | 50% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-05 | PA President | D+7.0 | D+1.2 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-10 | AZ Governor | R+1.0 | R+14.2 | 13.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-10 | AZ Senate | D+5.0 | D+2.3 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-02 | OH President | R+3.0 | R+8.1 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-27 | FL President | D+8.0 | R+1.2 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-27 | FL Senate | R+6.0 | R+7.7 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-05 | OH President | D+2.9 | R+8.1 | 11.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-19 | OH President | D+3.0 | R+8.1 | 11.1 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-19 | OH Senate | R+15.0 | R+20.9 | 5.9 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.