Saint Leo University Polling Institute
10 scored general-election polls (2014–2018) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2 | 10.3 pts | D+10.3 | 0% |
| 2016 | 6 | 6.5 pts | D+5.9 | 67% |
| 2014 | 2 | 2.6 pts | D+1.5 | 50% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-10-19 | FL Governor | D+11.8 | R+0.4 | 12.2 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-19 | FL Senate | D+8.2 | R+0.1 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-24 | FL President | D+14.3 | R+1.2 | 15.5 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-24 | National President | D+11.3 | D+2.2 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-24 | FL Senate | R+4.9 | R+7.7 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-13 | FL President | D+5.8 | R+1.2 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-13 | National President | D+5.2 | D+2.2 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-13 | FL Senate | R+9.5 | R+7.7 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | FL Governor | D+3.0 | R+1.1 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-03 | FL-26 House | R+4.0 | R+2.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.