Elway Research
8 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 1.5 pts | R+1.5 | 100% |
| 2018 | 2 | 8.9 pts | R+8.9 | 50% |
| 2016 | 3 | 3.5 pts | D+3.5 | 100% |
| 2014 | 2 | 0.7 pts | D+0.7 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-14 | WA Senate | D+13.0 | D+14.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-06 | WA-8 House | R+10.0 | D+4.8 | 14.8 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-06 | WA Senate | D+14.0 | D+16.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-21 | WA President | D+17.0 | D+15.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-21 | WA Senate | D+24.0 | D+18.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-21 | WA Governor | D+12.0 | D+8.8 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-26 | OR Governor | D+7.0 | D+5.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-26 | OR Senate | D+19.0 | D+18.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.