Clout Research
8 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | 7.9 pts | R+7.9 | 0% |
| 2018 | 1 | 5.5 pts | R+5.5 | 100% |
| 2016 | 4 | 5.8 pts | R+2.6 | 100% |
| 2014 | 1 | 10.7 pts | R+10.7 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-08 | OR Governor | R+5.4 | D+3.4 | 8.8 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-25 | OR Governor | R+3.5 | D+3.4 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-22 | OR Governor | D+0.9 | D+6.4 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-03 | OR Governor | D+11.1 | D+7.2 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-20 | OR Governor | D+2.0 | D+7.2 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-17 | GA President | R+2.7 | R+5.1 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-16 | NY-3 House | Even | D+11.7 | 11.7 | — |
| 2014-10-06 | MI Senate | D+2.6 | D+13.3 | 10.7 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.