North Star Opinion Research
5 scored general-election polls (2014–2016) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-10-23 | N2 President | R+4.0 | R+2.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-23 | NE-2 House | R+4.0 | R+1.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-10 | IL-10 House | R+7.0 | D+5.2 | 12.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-16 | NH-1 House | R+3.0 | D+1.3 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-17 | AZ-1 House | R+6.0 | D+5.2 | 11.2 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.