BK Strategies
4 scored general-election polls (2016–2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-10-04 | IN Governor | R+39.0 | R+24.5 | 14.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-27 | MO President | R+14.0 | R+18.6 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-27 | MO Senate | R+3.0 | R+2.8 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-27 | MO Governor | D+1.0 | R+5.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.