Public Religion Research Institute
10 scored general-election polls (2016–2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2 | 12.1 pts | D+12.1 | 100% |
| 2018 | 2 | 5.0 pts | D+5.0 | 100% |
| 2016 | 6 | 7.8 pts | D+7.0 | 80% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-10-11 | National President | D+18.0 | D+4.4 | 13.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | National President | D+15.0 | D+4.4 | 10.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-18 | National Generic Ballot | D+9.0 | D+8.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-24 | National Generic Ballot | D+18.0 | D+8.5 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-14 | National Generic Ballot | D+12.0 | R+1.0 | 13.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-14 | National President | D+15.0 | D+2.2 | 12.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-07 | National President | D+11.0 | D+2.2 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-30 | National President | D+6.0 | D+2.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-24 | National President | Even | D+2.2 | 2.2 | — |
| 2016-09-14 | National President | D+8.0 | D+2.2 | 5.8 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.