DHM Research
8 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 4.4 pts | R+4.4 | 0% |
| 2020 | 1 | 4.1 pts | R+4.1 | 100% |
| 2018 | 1 | 1.4 pts | R+1.4 | 100% |
| 2016 | 4 | 3.9 pts | R+0.1 | 100% |
| 2014 | 1 | 2.1 pts | D+2.1 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-23 | OR Governor | R+1.0 | D+3.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-05 | OR President | D+12.0 | D+16.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-08 | OR Governor | D+5.0 | D+6.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-27 | OR President | D+7.0 | D+11.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-27 | OR Governor | D+9.0 | D+7.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-10 | OR President | D+7.0 | D+11.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-10 | OR Governor | D+13.0 | D+7.2 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-09 | OR Senate | D+21.0 | D+18.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.