Elon University
13 scored general-election polls (2014–2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | 3.7 pts | D+3.7 | 0% |
| 2016 | 9 | 4.2 pts | D+3.5 | 38% |
| 2014 | 2 | 6.5 pts | D+6.5 | 0% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-17 | NC President | Even | R+3.2 | 3.2 | — |
| 2024-09-13 | NC President | D+1.0 | R+3.2 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-25 | NC President | D+0.8 | R+3.7 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-25 | NC Senate | R+3.6 | R+5.7 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-25 | NC Governor | Even | D+0.2 | 0.2 | — |
| 2016-09-29 | NC President | D+5.5 | R+3.7 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-29 | NC Senate | D+0.2 | R+5.7 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-29 | NC Governor | D+4.0 | D+0.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-14 | NC President | R+1.0 | R+3.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-14 | NC Senate | D+1.0 | R+5.7 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-14 | NC Governor | R+3.0 | D+0.2 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-23 | NC Senate | D+4.0 | R+1.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-07 | NC Senate | D+5.8 | R+1.6 | 7.4 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.