Expedition Strategies partisan·D
5 scored general-election polls (2016–2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1 | 8.2 pts | D+8.2 | 0% |
| 2018 | 1 | 2.7 pts | R+2.7 | 100% |
| 2016 | 3 | 8.9 pts | D+6.1 | 33% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-11 | CO-3 House | D+2.0 | R+6.2 | 8.2 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-07 | IA-4 House | R+6.0 | R+3.3 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-11 | VA-10 House | D+4.0 | R+5.8 | 9.8 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-20 | VA-10 House | R+10.0 | R+5.8 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-11 | FL-26 House | D+1.0 | R+11.8 | 12.8 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.