Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom S. P. Perriello ✓ | 29,551 | 79.9% | |
| Suzanne K. "Dr. K" Krzyzanowski | 5,327 | 14.4% | |
| Rob W. "T-ski" Tracinski | 2,130 | 5.8% |
Republican Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| John J. McGuire III ✓ | 41,746 | 84.4% | |
| Melanie V. Lucero | 7,737 | 15.6% |
Full calendar and every race: Virginia primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Washington Post/SSPG | 2026-09-28 | 600 LV | ±4.60 | Tom Perriello 45.00% | John McGuire 51.00% |
| Expedition Strategies (D) partisan·D | 2026-09-24 | 400 LV | ±4.90 | Tom Perriello 45.00% | John McGuire 46.00% |
| Expedition Strategies (D) partisan·D | 2026-08-01 | 602 LV | ±3.99 | Tom Perriello 44.00% | John McGuire 47.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 VA-05 House race?
John McGuire leads Thomas Perriello 48% to 44.7% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+3.3 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 VA-05 House race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean R, the current rating band, and the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 VA-05 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from The Washington Post/SSPG (completed September 28, 2026), found Tom Perriello (D) at 45% and John McGuire (R) at 51%.
When is the 2026 VA-05 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Defeated Bob Good in 2024 primary
Independent Expenditures Updated 2 hours ago
Top Spenders
- OUR VIRGINIA Dem-aligned $1,756,682
- VIRGINIANS FOR CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP PAC GOP-aligned $260,772
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $211,386
- CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC. GOP-aligned $133,118
- RP PAC Dem-aligned $50,591
- VOTERS OF TOMORROW PAC Dem-aligned $19,266
- THE GUARDIAN SUPER PAC GOP-aligned $14,118
- FIELD TEAM 6, INC. Dem-aligned $2,266
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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