Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom S. P. Perriello ✓ | 29,551 | 79.9% | |
| Suzanne K. "Dr. K" Krzyzanowski | 5,327 | 14.4% | |
| Rob W. "T-ski" Tracinski | 2,130 | 5.8% |
Republican Primary
Held August 4, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| John J. McGuire III ✓ | 41,746 | 84.4% | |
| Melanie V. Lucero | 7,737 | 15.6% |
Full calendar and every race: Virginia primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Each point is a poll. The published PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days.
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John McGuire Nominee Incumbent
RepublicanGeneral Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Washington Post/SSPG | 2026-09-28 | 600 LV | ±4.60 | Tom Perriello 45.00% | John McGuire 51.00% |
| Expedition Strategies (D) partisan·D | 2026-09-24 | 400 LV | ±4.90 | Tom Perriello 45.00% | John McGuire 46.00% |
| Expedition Strategies (D) partisan·D | 2026-08-01 | 602 LV | ±3.99 | Tom Perriello 44.00% | John McGuire 47.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 VA-05 House race?
John McGuire leads Thomas Perriello 48.5% to 45% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+3.5 margin based on 2 polls from the most recent week of polls ending in the last 30 days.
Is the 2026 VA-05 House race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean R, the current rating band, and the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 VA-05 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from The Washington Post/SSPG (completed September 28, 2026), found Tom Perriello (D) at 45% and John McGuire (R) at 51%.
When is the 2026 VA-05 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Defeated Bob Good in 2024 primary
Race News
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