The Tyson Group partisan·R
6 scored general-election polls (2014–2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1 | 12.6 pts | D+12.6 | 100% |
| 2016 | 4 | 2.9 pts | D+2.7 | 50% |
| 2014 | 1 | 1.9 pts | R+1.9 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-04 | LA President | R+6.0 | R+18.6 | 12.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-19 | FL President | D+3.0 | R+1.2 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-19 | FL Senate | R+5.0 | R+7.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-04 | FL President | D+3.0 | R+1.2 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-04 | FL Senate | R+8.0 | R+7.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-06 | FL Governor | R+3.0 | R+1.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.