New Mexico Governor Race

2026 Election • Open Seat (Term Limited)
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Primary

Primary held June 2, 2026.

Democratic Primary

CandidateVotes%
Deb Haaland 158,713 72.3%
Sam Bregman 60,619 27.7%

Republican Primary

CandidateVotes%
Gregg Hull 56,708 47.0%
Doug Turner 44,480 36.9%
Duke Rodriguez 19,393 16.1%

Full calendar and every race: New Mexico primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
OPEN (Michelle Lujan Grisham)
Party
Democrat
Open Seat
Yes
Current Rating
Lean D expert avg
Term Limited
Yes
Polls
1 polls

General Election Polling Trend

PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 30 days.

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Race Ratings

Consensus Rating

Lean D

Individual forecaster ratings will be updated as they become available.

Candidates

Deb Haaland Nominee

Democrat

Gregg Hull Nominee

Republican

General Election Polling Average

Democrat
46.0%
Republican
45.0%
Margin
D+1.0
Last Poll
Jul 15, 2026

Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →

PollsterDateSampleMoEDemRep
McLaughlin & Associates (R) partisan·R 2026-07-15 400 LV ±4.90 Deb Haaland 46.00% Gregg Hull 45.00%

Questions About This Race

Who is winning the 2026 New Mexico governor's race?

Deb Haaland leads Gregg Hull 46% to 45% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+1.0 margin based on 1 poll from the last 90 days.

Is the 2026 New Mexico governor's race competitive?

Yes — the expert consensus rates it Lean D: Democrats are favored, but the race is competitive.

What does the latest poll of the 2026 New Mexico governor's race say?

The most recent public poll, from McLaughlin & Associates (R) (completed July 15, 2026), found Deb Haaland (D) at 46% and Gregg Hull (R) at 45%.

When is the 2026 New Mexico governor's race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

Race Notes

Term-limited, open seat

Race News