New Mexico Governor Race

2026 Election • Open Seat (Term Limited)
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Primary

Democratic Primary

Held June 2, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Deb Haaland ✓ 158,360 72.3%
Sam Bregman 60,587 27.7%
99% reporting

Republican Primary

Held June 2, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Gregg Hull ✓ 56,708 47.0%
David Gallegos ✓ 56,636 49.8%
Doug Turner 44,480 36.9%
Aubrey Dunn 42,965 37.7%
Duke Rodriguez 19,393 16.1%
Manuel Lardizabal 14,235 12.5%

Full calendar and every race: New Mexico primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
OPEN (Michelle Lujan Grisham)
Party
Democrat
Open Seat
Yes
Current Rating
Likely D our polls experts: Lean D
Term Limited
Yes
Polls
1 polls

PollingSource Rating

Likely D
Our polling average D+6.0 · 1 poll

General Election Polling Trend

Each point is a poll. The published PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days.

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Expert Ratings

Expert Consensus Rating

Lean D

Individual forecaster ratings will be updated as they become available.

Candidates

Deb Haaland

Deb Haaland Nominee

Democrat

Gregg Hull Nominee

Republican

General Election Polling Average

Democrat
47.0%
Republican
41.0%
Margin
D+6.0
Last Poll
Sep 30, 2026

Average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →

PollsterDateSampleMoEDemRep
SurveyUSA 2026-09-30 567 LV Deb Haaland 47.00% Gregg Hull 41.00%
Research & Polling Inc. 2026-08-28 516 LV ±4.30 Deb Haaland 49.00% Gregg Hull 43.00%
BSP Research 2026-08-07 800 RV ±3.50 Deb Haaland 41.00% Gregg Hull 24.00%

Questions About This Race

Who is winning the 2026 New Mexico governor's race?

Deb Haaland leads Gregg Hull 47% to 41% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+6.0 margin based on 1 poll from the most recent week of polls ending in the last 30 days.

Is the 2026 New Mexico governor's race competitive?

It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the PollingSource polling average rates it Likely D, the current rating band. An upset is not impossible.

What does the latest poll of the 2026 New Mexico governor's race say?

The most recent public poll, from SurveyUSA (completed September 30, 2026), found Deb Haaland (D) at 47% and Gregg Hull (R) at 41%.

When is the 2026 New Mexico governor's race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the most recent week of scientific public polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days. One poll in that week is the average. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists the polls from that window. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

Race Notes

Term-limited, open seat

Race News