Primary
Democratic Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marni von Wilpert ✓ | 39,327 | 20.8% | |
| Ammar Campa-Najjar | 20,095 | 10.6% | |
| Brandon Riker | 11,892 | 6.3% | |
| Abel Chavez | 10,339 | 5.5% | |
| Corinna Contreras | 10,056 | 5.3% | |
| Mike Schaefer | 4,770 | 2.5% | |
| Stephen Clemons | 1,542 | 0.8% | |
| Ferguson Porter | 1,301 | 0.7% | |
| Eric Shaw | 1,299 | 0.7% |
Republican Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Desmond ✓ | 73,508 | 38.9% | |
| Kevin Patrick O'Neil | 13,132 | 7.0% |
No party preference Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luis F. Reyna | 1,690 | 0.9% |
Full calendar and every race: California primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
PollingSource average — the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days). This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Jim Desmond Nominee
RepublicanGeneral Election Polling Average
No scientific polls in the last 30 days — the figure is the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer when fewer exist, not a 30-day mean. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2026-09-01 | 522 LV | ±5.20 | Marni von Wilpert 45.00% | Jim Desmond 42.00% |
| Lake Research Partners (D) partisan·D | 2026-07-14 | 500 LV | ±4.40 | Marni von Wilpert 48.00% | Jim Desmond 46.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 CA-48 House race?
Marni von Wilpert leads Jim Desmond 46.5% to 44% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+2.5 margin based on the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days).
Is the 2026 CA-48 House race competitive?
Yes — the expert consensus rates it Lean D, the current rating band, and the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 CA-48 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from SurveyUSA (completed September 1, 2026), found Marni von Wilpert (D) at 45% and Jim Desmond (R) at 42%.
When is the 2026 CA-48 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average on this page is the last three qualifying scientific public polls of the locked matchup, or fewer — the newest of them is older than 30 days, so this is not a 30-day mean and it does not set the rating. We do not exclude pollsters. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated 30 min ago
Top Spenders
- HMP Dem-aligned $4,233,790
- DMFI PAC GOP-aligned $2,000,000
- VETERANS FOR TRUTH PAC GOP-aligned $806,361
- HEALTH CARE SAVES LIVES Mixed $796,924
- VOTEVETS Dem-aligned $443,774
- 48TH ACCOUNTABILITY PROJECT Dem-aligned $304,385
- SERVING CA Dem-aligned $284,259
- UPSET THE SETUP Dem-aligned $198,346
- CRUSH MAGA PAC GOP-aligned $160,675
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $133,344
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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