RRH Elections
11 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3 | 5.2 pts | R+5.2 | 100% |
| 2021 | 1 | 8.7 pts | R+8.7 | 100% |
| 2019 | 2 | 7.1 pts | D+7.1 | 100% |
| 2016 | 2 | 1.1 pts | D+0.7 | 100% |
| 2015 | 1 | 6.2 pts | R+6.2 | 100% |
| 2014 | 2 | 1.1 pts | D+1.0 | 50% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-01 | VA-7 House | Even | D+4.7 | 4.7 | — |
| 2022-11-01 | OR-4 House | Even | D+7.5 | 7.5 | — |
| 2022-11-01 | OH-13 House | D+2.0 | D+5.4 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2021-05-20 | NM-1 House | D+16.0 | D+24.7 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 2019-08-27 | NC-3 House | R+11.0 | R+24.3 | 13.3 | ✓ |
| 2019-08-27 | NC-9 House | R+1.0 | R+2.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-25 | VT President | D+26.0 | D+26.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-25 | VT Governor | R+7.0 | R+8.7 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2015-11-14 | LA Governor | D+6.0 | D+12.2 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-22 | AZ-2 House | D+2.0 | R+0.1 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 2014-02-26 | FL-13 House | R+2.0 | R+1.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.