KAConsulting
12 scored general-election polls (2021–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 10 | 4.4 pts | R+4.3 | 90% |
| 2021 | 2 | 3.0 pts | D+2.9 | 50% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-02 | NV Governor | R+2.0 | R+1.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-02 | AZ Governor | R+4.0 | D+0.7 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-02 | NV Senate | D+1.0 | D+0.8 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-02 | AZ Senate | D+1.0 | D+4.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-28 | NY Governor | D+1.0 | D+7.3 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-28 | MI Governor | D+7.0 | D+10.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-28 | NY Senate | D+12.0 | D+14.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-21 | WA Senate | D+6.0 | D+14.5 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-18 | MD-6 House | D+5.0 | D+9.6 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-18 | MD-2 House | D+9.0 | D+18.6 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 2021-10-20 | VA Governor | R+2.0 | R+1.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2021-09-18 | VA Governor | D+4.0 | R+1.9 | 5.9 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.