BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research
5 scored general-election polls (2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5 | 1.3 pts | D+0.2 | 75% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-23 | AZ Governor | Even | D+0.7 | 0.7 | — |
| 2022-10-23 | AZ Senate | D+4.0 | D+4.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-16 | NV Governor | D+1.0 | R+1.5 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-16 | NV Senate | D+2.0 | D+0.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-15 | TX Governor | R+12.0 | R+10.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.