Hoffman Research Group partisan·R
4 scored general-election polls (2016–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 5.4 pts | R+5.4 | 0% |
| 2018 | 2 | 3.5 pts | D+0.1 | 100% |
| 2016 | 1 | 1.0 pts | D+1.0 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-17 | OR Governor | R+2.0 | D+3.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-29 | OR Governor | D+3.0 | D+6.4 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-12 | OR Governor | D+10.0 | D+6.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-30 | OR President | D+12.0 | D+11.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.