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Blueprint Polling partisan·D

3 scored general-election polls (2018–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.

Record by cycle

CyclePollsAvg. ErrorLeanWinner Called
2022 2 2.9 pts D+2.9 100%
2018 1 1.4 pts R+1.4 100%

Every scored poll

DateRacePoll MarginActualErrorCalled It
2022-10-29 OR Governor D+4.0 D+3.4 0.6 ✓
2022-10-29 OK Governor R+8.5 R+13.7 5.2 ✓
2018-09-11 TX Senate R+4.0 R+2.6 1.4 ✓

Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.

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