Axis Research
3 scored general-election polls (2017–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 2.6 pts | — | 100% |
| 2018 | 1 | 3.6 pts | R+3.6 | — |
| 2017 | 1 | 18.6 pts | R+18.6 | 0% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-18 | ND-1 House | D+22.0 | D+24.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-18 | MT Senate | Even | D+3.6 | 3.6 | — |
| 2017-10-25 | AL Senate | R+17.0 | D+1.6 | 18.6 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.