Market Research Insight
7 scored general-election polls (2015–2016) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2 | 7.6 pts | D+7.6 | 100% |
| 2015 | 5 | 2.3 pts | D+2.2 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-10-18 | LA President | R+7.0 | R+19.6 | 12.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-29 | LA President | R+17.0 | R+19.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2015-11-17 | LA Governor | D+12.0 | D+12.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2015-11-15 | LA Governor | D+15.0 | D+12.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2015-11-13 | LA Governor | D+15.0 | D+12.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2015-11-09 | LA Governor | D+14.0 | D+12.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2015-10-27 | LA Governor | D+16.0 | D+12.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.