AP-NORC
4 scored general-election polls (2018–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 9.6 pts | D+9.6 | 0% |
| 2020 | 2 | 5.5 pts | D+5.1 | 100% |
| 2018 | 1 | 1.5 pts | D+1.5 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-08 | National Generic Ballot | D+7.0 | R+2.6 | 9.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-10 | National President | D+15.0 | D+4.4 | 10.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-13 | National President | D+4.0 | D+4.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-13 | National Generic Ballot | D+10.0 | D+8.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.