Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs
4 scored general-election polls (2020–2021) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2 | 7.9 pts | D+7.9 | 0% |
| 2020 | 2 | 3.4 pts | D+3.4 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-15 | VA Governor | D+3.0 | R+1.9 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 2021-09-11 | VA Governor | D+9.0 | R+1.9 | 10.9 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-17 | VA Senate | D+17.0 | D+12.1 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | VA President | D+12.0 | D+10.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.