University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy
3 scored general-election polls (2020–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-01 | CA Governor | D+24.0 | D+18.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-01 | CA Senate | D+26.0 | D+22.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | CA President | D+37.0 | D+29.2 | 7.8 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.