SEA Polling & Strategic Design
5 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 15.3 pts | D+15.3 | 0% |
| 2018 | 2 | 4.1 pts | D+2.3 | 50% |
| 2014 | 2 | 1.4 pts | R+1.4 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-04 | FL-27 House | D+0.7 | R+14.6 | 15.3 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-19 | FL Governor | D+6.0 | R+0.4 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-19 | FL Senate | R+2.0 | R+0.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-30 | FL Governor | R+3.0 | R+1.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-28 | FL Governor | R+2.0 | R+1.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.