Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute
5 scored general-election polls (2014–2018) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1 | 6.3 pts | D+6.3 | 100% |
| 2016 | 2 | 4.2 pts | D+3.5 | 100% |
| 2014 | 2 | 1.3 pts | D+0.9 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-09-26 | IL Governor | D+22.0 | D+15.7 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-29 | IL President | D+24.8 | D+17.1 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-29 | IL Senate | D+14.4 | D+15.1 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-04 | IL Governor | R+1.7 | R+3.9 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-04 | IL Senate | D+10.4 | D+10.9 | 0.5 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.