Probolsky Research
3 scored general-election polls (2014–2018) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-10-27 | CA Governor | D+10.5 | D+23.9 | 13.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-27 | CA Senate | D+5.7 | D+8.3 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-15 | CA-24 House | R+1.0 | D+3.9 | 4.9 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.