GS Strategy Group
4 scored general-election polls (2016–2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1 | 1.3 pts | R+1.3 | 100% |
| 2018 | 1 | 24.6 pts | R+24.6 | 100% |
| 2016 | 2 | 5.6 pts | R+5.6 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-10-14 | TX-7 House | D+2.0 | D+3.3 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-03 | TX-23 House | R+25.0 | R+0.4 | 24.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-04 | IL President | D+17.0 | D+17.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-04 | IL Senate | D+4.0 | D+15.1 | 11.1 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.