University of Arkansas Department of Political Science
9 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | 7.3 pts | D+7.3 | 100% |
| 2020 | 2 | 13.7 pts | R+5.4 | 100% |
| 2018 | 1 | 9.6 pts | D+9.6 | 100% |
| 2016 | 2 | 6.5 pts | D+6.5 | 100% |
| 2014 | 2 | 3.5 pts | D+3.5 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-22 | AR Governor | R+19.1 | R+27.8 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-22 | AR Senate | R+28.8 | R+34.6 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-15 | AR Senate | D+55.0 | D+33.1 | 21.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-15 | AR President | R+33.0 | R+27.6 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-15 | AR Governor | R+24.0 | R+33.6 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-22 | AR President | R+19.8 | R+26.9 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-22 | AR Senate | R+17.8 | R+23.6 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-24 | AR Governor | R+11.0 | R+13.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-24 | AR Senate | R+13.0 | R+17.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.