Fairleigh Dickinson University
7 scored general-election polls (2014–2021) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1 | 5.8 pts | D+5.8 | 100% |
| 2020 | 1 | 0.9 pts | R+0.9 | 100% |
| 2018 | 1 | 5.2 pts | R+5.2 | 100% |
| 2017 | 1 | 0.9 pts | D+0.9 | 100% |
| 2016 | 2 | 3.5 pts | D+3.4 | 100% |
| 2014 | 1 | 2.5 pts | D+2.5 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-25 | NJ Governor | D+9.0 | D+3.2 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-02 | NJ President | D+15.0 | D+15.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-28 | NJ Senate | D+6.0 | D+11.2 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2017-10-13 | NJ Governor | D+15.0 | D+14.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-14 | NJ President | D+14.0 | D+14.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-30 | National President | D+9.0 | D+2.2 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-16 | NJ Senate | D+16.0 | D+13.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.