Western Kentucky University Social Science Research Center
4 scored general-election polls (2014–2016) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2 | 7.2 pts | D+5.7 | 100% |
| 2015 | 1 | 13.7 pts | D+13.7 | 0% |
| 2014 | 1 | 11.8 pts | D+11.8 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-10-27 | KY President | R+17.0 | R+29.8 | 12.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-27 | KY Senate | R+16.0 | R+14.6 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2015-10-22 | KY Governor | D+5.0 | R+8.7 | 13.7 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-12 | KY Senate | R+3.7 | R+15.5 | 11.8 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.