OpinionWorks
3 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 1.4 pts | R+1.4 | 100% |
| 2020 | 1 | 1.2 pts | R+1.2 | 100% |
| 2014 | 1 | 10.8 pts | D+10.8 | 0% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-22 | MD Governor | D+31.0 | D+32.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-08 | MD President | D+32.0 | D+33.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-06 | MD Governor | D+7.0 | R+3.8 | 10.8 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.