Victoria Research & Consulting
4 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 2.2 pts | D+2.2 | 100% |
| 2020 | 1 | 13.6 pts | D+13.6 | 0% |
| 2018 | 1 | 6.5 pts | D+6.5 | 0% |
| 2014 | 1 | 14.1 pts | D+14.1 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-29 | MT-1 House | R+1.0 | R+3.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-23 | PA-10 House | D+7.0 | R+6.6 | 13.6 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-29 | MN-8 House | D+1.0 | R+5.5 | 6.5 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-26 | VA-10 House | R+2.0 | R+16.1 | 14.1 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.