Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics
7 scored general-election polls (2016–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | 9.6 pts | R+9.6 | 100% |
| 2020 | 1 | 2.2 pts | R+2.2 | 100% |
| 2018 | 2 | 7.3 pts | R+2.9 | 100% |
| 2016 | 2 | 5.7 pts | D+5.7 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-10 | MD Governor | D+22.0 | D+32.4 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-10 | MD Senate | D+23.0 | D+31.7 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-02 | MD President | D+31.0 | D+33.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-13 | MD Governor | R+22.0 | R+11.9 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-13 | MD Senate | D+39.0 | D+34.6 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-19 | MD President | D+33.0 | D+26.4 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-19 | MD Senate | D+30.0 | D+25.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.