Jayhawk Consulting Services
4 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 12.3 pts | D+12.3 | 100% |
| 2018 | 2 | 28.8 pts | D+28.8 | 100% |
| 2014 | 1 | 42.9 pts | D+42.9 | 0% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-11 | KS-2 House | R+3.0 | R+15.3 | 12.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-22 | KS-1 House | R+4.0 | R+36.3 | 32.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-21 | KS-1 House | R+11.0 | R+36.3 | 25.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-25 | KS-1 House | D+7.0 | R+35.9 | 42.9 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.