University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research
6 scored general-election polls (2018–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | 3.4 pts | D+3.4 | 100% |
| 2020 | 2 | 5.1 pts | D+5.1 | 50% |
| 2018 | 2 | 4.1 pts | R+4.1 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-21 | TX Governor | R+6.0 | R+10.9 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-10 | TX Governor | R+9.0 | R+10.9 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | TX Senate | R+8.0 | R+9.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | TX President | D+3.0 | R+5.6 | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-21 | TX Governor | R+20.4 | R+13.3 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-21 | TX Senate | R+3.6 | R+2.6 | 1.0 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.