Strategy Research
6 scored general-election polls (2016–2017) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 5 | 9.0 pts | R+9.0 | 0% |
| 2016 | 1 | 11.7 pts | D+11.7 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-12-04 | AL Senate | R+7.0 | D+1.6 | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 2017-11-20 | AL Senate | R+2.0 | D+1.6 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 2017-11-13 | AL Senate | R+6.0 | D+1.6 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2017-10-19 | AL Senate | R+11.0 | D+1.6 | 12.6 | ✗ |
| 2017-10-16 | AL Senate | R+11.0 | D+1.6 | 12.6 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-27 | AL President | R+16.0 | R+27.7 | 11.7 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.