Strategic National
6 scored general-election polls (2016–2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2 | 3.3 pts | D+2.6 | 100% |
| 2018 | 2 | 6.0 pts | D+6.0 | 100% |
| 2016 | 2 | 0.7 pts | D+0.7 | 0% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-10-16 | MI-3 House | Even | R+5.9 | 5.9 | — |
| 2020-10-15 | SC-1 House | R+2.0 | R+1.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-08 | MI Governor | D+10.0 | D+9.6 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-08 | MI Senate | D+18.0 | D+6.5 | 11.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-03 | MI President | Even | R+0.2 | 0.2 | — |
| 2016-10-29 | MI President | D+1.0 | R+0.2 | 1.2 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.