Today's Source

Saturday, October 31, 2026

← Oct 30 Nov 1 →

The most covered subject in today's stored headlines is AK Senate: 5 stories from 2 outlets. The top headline is "Feds ‘intensely’ probing alleged Alaska ballot scheme, US attorney confirms" (The Hill).

Polls

FL Governor View race
Big Data Poll (n=1129 LV) · Field ended Oct 30
David Jolly 44% · Byron Donalds 47%
FL Senate View race
Big Data Poll (n=1129 LV) · Field ended Oct 30
Nixon 45% · Moody 52%
National Generic View race
ActiVote (n=2000 LV) · Field ended Oct 30
Democrats 53.5% · Republicans 46.5%
IL Senate View race
ActiVote (n=400 LV) · Field ended Oct 30
Juliana Stratton 55.6% · Don Tracy 44.4%
AZ Governor View race
GrayHouse (R) (n=500 LV) · Field ended Oct 29
Katie Hobbs 50% · Andy Biggs 45%
SC Senate View race
Patinkin Research Strategies (D) (n=500 LV) · Field ended Oct 29
Annie Andrews 48% · Darline Graham 43%
LA Senate View race
Hart Research Associates (D) (n=502 LV) · Field ended Oct 29
Jamie Davis 45% · Julia Letlow 45%
AK Senate View race
Alaska Survey Research (n=1326 LV) · Field ended Oct 29
First choice only, not in average
MI Senate View race
Rasmussen Reports (n=745 LV) · Field ended Oct 29
Abdul El-Sayed 49% · Mike Rogers 44%
FL Senate View race
InsiderAdvantage (n=1200 LV) · Field ended Oct 29
Angie Nixon 43% · Ashley Moody 49%
FL Governor View race
InsiderAdvantage (n=1200 LV) · Field ended Oct 29
David Jolly 45% · Byron Donalds 49%
National Generic View race
THP/MM (n=1158 LV) · Field ended Oct 29
Democrats 54% · Republicans 41%
NV Governor View race
Noble Predictive Insights (n=487 LV) · Field ended Oct 28
Aaron Ford 47% · Joe Lombardo 47%
MN Senate View race
KSTP/SurveyUSA (n=714 LV) · Field ended Oct 28
Peggy Flanagan 48% · Michele Tafoya 41%
TX Senate View race
Quantus Insights (n=1221 LV) · Field ended Oct 28
James Talarico 48.4% · Ken Paxton 49.4%
AZ-01 House View race
Keating Research (n=500 LV) · Field ended Oct 28
Amish Shah 49% · Jay Feely 45%
AZ Governor View race
Noble Predictive Insights (n=511 LV) · Field ended Oct 28
Katie Hobbs 51% · Andy Biggs 45%
CA-48 House View race
USC/Dornsife (n=474 LV) · Field ended Oct 28
Marni von Wilpert 52% · Jim Desmond 44%
KS Governor View race
Emerson (n=800 LV) · Field ended Oct 28
Cindy Holscher 46% · Ty Masterson 50%
KS Senate View race
Emerson (n=800 LV) · Field ended Oct 28
Adam Hamilton 49% · incumbent Roger 45%
TX Governor View race
Quantus Insights (n=1221 LV) · Field ended Oct 28
Gina Hinojosa 46.3% · Greg Abbott 51.6%
MI Governor View race
SSRS (n=768 LV) · Field ended Oct 27
Jocelyn Benson 53% · John James 41%
ME Governor View race
Data for Progress (n=652 LV) · Field ended Oct 27
Hannah Pingree 49% · Robert Charles 37%
MI Senate View race
SSRS (n=768 LV) · Field ended Oct 27
Abdul El-Sayed 49% · Mike Rogers 42%
ME Senate View race
Data for Progress (D) (n=652 LV) · Field ended Oct 27
Troy Jackson 50% · Susan Collins 45%
National Generic View race
Tufts University (n=499 LV) · Field ended Oct 27
Democrats 52% · Republicans 40%
KS Senate View race
SSRS (n=838 LV) · Field ended Oct 26
Adam Hamilton 49% · Roger Marshall 45%
MN-08 House View race
Public Policy Polling (D) (n=585 RV) · Field ended Oct 26
Trina Swanson 43% · Pete Stauber 49%
TX Governor View race
Data for Progress (D) (n=712 LV) · Field ended Oct 26
Gina Hinojosa 47% · Greg Abbott 48%
TX Senate View race
Data for Progress (D) (n=712 LV) · Field ended Oct 26
James Talarico 49% · Ken Paxton 45%
SD Governor View race
Concord Public Opinion Partners (n=448 LV) · Field ended Oct 26
Dan Ahlers 39% · Larry Rhoden 48%
KS Governor View race
The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government (n=801 LV) · Field ended Oct 26
Cindy Holscher 51% · Ty Masterson 45%
SD Senate View race
Concord Public Opinion Partners (n=448 LV) · Field ended Oct 26
Brian Bengs 43% · Mike Rounds 41%
National Generic View race
Emerson (n=1000 LV) · Field ended Oct 26
Democrats 52% · Republicans 42%
KS Senate View race
Washington Post (n=801 LV) · Field ended Oct 26
Adam Hamilton 54% · Roger Marshall 44%
TX Senate View race
254 Labs/YouGov Blue (n=1000 LV) · Field ended Oct 26
James Talarico 51% · Ken Paxton 43%
MI Governor View race
Data for Progress (n=622 LV) · Field ended Oct 25
Jocelyn Benson 52% · John James 43%
MI Senate View race
Data for Progress (n=622 LV) · Field ended Oct 25
Abdul El-Sayed 50% · Mike Rogers 46%
AL-02 House View race
Remington Research Group (n=642 LV) · Field ended Oct 25
Shomari Figures 46% · Rhett Marques 48%
CA Governor View race
LA Times/Berkeley IGS (n=1477 LV) · Field ended Oct 25
Xavier Becerra 61% · Steve Hilton 34%
MT-01 House View race
Montana State University Billings (n=287 A) · Field ended Oct 21
Sam Forstag 49% · Aaron Flint 32%
CO-05 House View race
Public Policy Polling · Field ended Oct 20
Jessica Killin 47% · Jeff Crank 47%

44 new polls this window (email poll list). Full New Polls list →

Follow the Money

Senate Money Race: Talarico's Haul Tops the Field

The latest FEC reports show James Talarico, the Democrat running in the Texas Senate race, with total receipts of $146.3 million, the largest figure among the filings reviewed. Talarico has spent $136.4 million to date and reports $9.9 million cash on hand heading into the final stretch. The scale of the fundraising underscores how costly the Texas contest has become, though the cash-on-hand figure — modest relative to total spending — suggests most of that money is already deployed rather than banked for a final push.

In Georgia, Democrat Jon Ossoff's Senate race filing shows $115.9 million in receipts against $105.8 million in disbursements, leaving $15.1 million on hand — the highest cash reserve among the Senate filings listed. Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown reported $68.4 million raised and $4.5 million remaining, while Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed's Senate race filing lists $53.8 million in receipts and $2.7 million cash on hand, the lowest reserve of the group. North Carolina Democrat Roy Cooper rounds out the filings with $49.6 million raised, $40.5 million spent, and $9.1 million remaining in his Senate race account.

Virginia House Filings Show No Financial Detail

Several Virginia House candidates filed reports with no receipts, disbursements, or cash-on-hand figures listed: Democrat Gerald Edward Connolly, Democrat Thomas Perriello, and independent Ahsen Mujeeb Malik. Tennessee Republican Mark Green and New Jersey Green Party candidate Andres Jinete likewise submitted filings without financial data attached. No further detail on these campaigns' fundraising activity is available in this batch of reports.

Continue reading →

Headlines

What to Watch

🗳 Voting this week

6 governor races are rated Toss-up: Georgia, Kansas, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, and Texas.

Election Day Arrives Tuesday

House Battlegrounds Concentrated in a Handful of States

Florida and New York each carry five competitive House districts, with Florida's 7th, 9th, 13th, 16th, 22nd and 27th districts rated Toss-up alongside New York's 4th, 17th and 21st. Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado also carry multiple Toss-up seats, including the Ohio 9th District and Virginia 2nd District. Control of the chamber likely hinges on how these clusters break.

Louisiana's Different Calendar

Louisiana holds a Senate general election and a House primary on the same day, a structural difference from the rest of the map worth noting when comparing results across states.

Continue reading →

New Polls (45)

Alaska Senate View race 1 poll
Oct 29, 2026 Alaska Survey Research n=1,326 LV · ±3 not in published average First choice only, not in average —
Florida Senate View race 2 polls
Oct 30, 2026 Big Data Poll n=1,129 LV · ±3 Nixon 45%–Moody 52% R+7.0
Oct 29, 2026 InsiderAdvantage n=1,200 LV · ±2.8 Nixon 43%–Moody 49% R+6.0
Illinois Senate View race 1 poll
Oct 30, 2026 ActiVote n=400 LV · ±4.9 Stratton 55.6%–Tracy 44.4% D+11.2
Kansas Senate View race 2 polls
Oct 26, 2026 CNN/SSRS n=838 LV · ±4.5 Hamilton 49%–Marshall 45% D+4.0
Oct 26, 2026 Washington Post n=801 LV · ±3.9 Hamilton 54%–Marshall 44% D+10.0
Louisiana Senate View race 1 poll
Oct 29, 2026 Hart Research Associates (D) n=502 LV · ±4.5 Davis 45%–Letlow 45% Even
Maine Senate View race 1 poll
Oct 27, 2026 Data for Progress (D) n=652 LV · ±4.5 Jackson 50%–Collins 45% D+5.0
Michigan Senate View race 3 polls
Oct 29, 2026 Rasmussen Reports n=745 LV · ±3 El-Sayed 49%–Rogers 44% D+5.0
Oct 27, 2026 CNN/SSRS n=768 LV · ±4.7 El-Sayed 49%–Rogers 42% D+7.0
Oct 25, 2026 Data for Progress n=622 LV · ±4 El-Sayed 50%–Rogers 46% D+4.0
Minnesota Senate View race 1 poll
Oct 28, 2026 KSTP/SurveyUSA n=714 LV · ±4.2 Flanagan 48%–Tafoya 41% D+7.0
Montana Senate View race 1 poll
Oct 21, 2026 Montana State University Billings n=720 A · ±3.7 Bankhead 21%–Bodnar (Ind) 26%–Alme 30% R+4.0
South Carolina Senate View race 1 poll
Oct 29, 2026 Patinkin Research Strategies (D) n=500 LV · ±4.4 Andrews 48%–Graham 43% D+5.0
South Dakota Senate View race 1 poll
Oct 26, 2026 Concord Public Opinion Partners n=448 LV · ±3.5 Bengs 43%–Rounds 41% I+2.0
Texas Senate View race 3 polls
Oct 28, 2026 Quantus Insights n=1,221 LV · ±6.4 Talarico 48.4%–Paxton 49.4% R+1.0
Oct 26, 2026 Data for Progress (D) n=712 LV · ±4 Talarico 49%–Paxton 45% D+4.0
Oct 26, 2026 254 Labs/YouGov Blue n=1,000 LV · ±4.6 Talarico 51%–Paxton 43% D+8.0
Arizona Governor View race 2 polls
Oct 29, 2026 GrayHouse (R) n=500 LV · ±4.2 Hobbs 50%–Biggs 45% D+5.0
Oct 28, 2026 Noble Predictive Insights n=511 LV · ±4.3 Hobbs 51%–Hourihan (Ind) 1%–Biggs 45% D+6.0
California Governor View race 1 poll
Oct 25, 2026 LA Times/Berkeley IGS n=1,477 LV · ±3 Becerra 61%–Hilton 34% D+27.0
Florida Governor View race 2 polls
Oct 30, 2026 Big Data Poll n=1,129 LV · ±3 Jolly 44%–Donalds 47% R+3.0
Oct 29, 2026 InsiderAdvantage n=1,200 LV · ±2.8 Jolly 45%–Donalds 49% R+4.0
Kansas Governor View race 2 polls
Oct 28, 2026 Emerson n=800 LV · ±3.5 Holscher 46%–Masterson 50% R+4.0
Maine Governor View race 1 poll
Oct 27, 2026 Data for Progress n=652 LV · ±4 Pingree 49%–Charles 37% D+12.0
Michigan Governor View race 2 polls
Oct 27, 2026 CNN/SSRS n=768 LV · ±4.7 Benson 53%–James 41% D+12.0
Oct 25, 2026 Data for Progress n=622 LV · ±4 Benson 52%–James 43% D+9.0
Minnesota Governor View race 1 poll
Oct 28, 2026 SurveyUSA n=714 LV · ±4.2 Klobuchar 51%–Demuth 39% D+12.0
Nevada Governor View race 1 poll
Oct 28, 2026 Noble Predictive Insights n=487 LV · ±4.4 Ford 47%–Lombardo 47% Even
South Dakota Governor View race 1 poll
Oct 26, 2026 Concord Public Opinion Partners n=448 LV Ahlers 39%–Rhoden 48% R+9.0
Texas Governor View race 2 polls
Oct 28, 2026 Quantus Insights n=1,221 LV · ±3.2 Hinojosa 46.3%–Abbott 51.6% R+5.3
Oct 26, 2026 Data for Progress (D) n=712 LV · ±4 Hinojosa 47%–Abbott 48% R+1.0
Alabama CD-02 View race 1 poll
Oct 25, 2026 Remington Research Group n=642 LV · ±4 Figures 46%–Marques 48% R+2.0
Arizona CD-01 View race 1 poll
Oct 28, 2026 Keating Research n=500 LV · ±4.4 Shah 49%–Feely 45% D+4.0
California CD-01 View race 1 poll
Oct 28, 2026 USC/Dornsife n=444 LV McGuire 56%–Gallagher 41% D+15.0
California CD-22 View race 1 poll
Oct 28, 2026 USC/Dornsife n=356 LV Villegas 54%–Valadao 44% D+10.0
California CD-48 View race 1 poll
Oct 28, 2026 USC/Dornsife n=474 LV Wilpert 52%–Desmond 44% D+8.0
Colorado CD-05 View race 1 poll
Oct 20, 2026 Public Policy Polling Killin 47%–Crank 47% Even
Minnesota CD-08 View race 1 poll
Oct 26, 2026 Public Policy Polling (D) n=585 RV Swanson 43%–Stauber 49% R+6.0
Montana CD-01 View race 1 poll
Oct 21, 2026 Montana State University Billings n=287 A · ±5.8 Forstag 49%–Flint 32% D+17.0
National Generic View race 4 polls
Oct 30, 2026 ActiVote n=2,000 LV · ±2.2 Democrats 53.5%–Republicans 46.5% D+7.0
Oct 29, 2026 THP/MM n=1,158 LV Democrats 54%–Republicans 41% D+13.0
Oct 27, 2026 Tufts University n=499 LV Democrats 52%–Republicans 40% D+12.0
Oct 26, 2026 Emerson n=1,000 LV Democrats 52%–Republicans 42% D+10.0

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