Primary
Democratic Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ahlers ✓ | — | — |
Republican Runoff
Held July 28, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Rhoden ✓ | 83,582 | 70.8% | |
| Toby Doeden | 34,430 | 29.2% |
Full calendar and every race: South Dakota primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Toby Doeden Lost primary
RepublicanDan Ahlers Nominee
Democrat
Larry Rhoden Nominee Incumbent
RepublicanGeneral Election Polling Average
LV = likely voters · RV = registered voters · ± = margin of error · R-sponsored / D-sponsored / I-sponsored = paid for by a Republican, Democratic, or Independent group · "missed 2024 by X pts" = that firm's average miss in 2024
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson missed 2024 by 2.7 pts In average | 2026-10-21 this poll | 803 LV | ±3.50 | Dan Ahlers 38.00% | Larry Rhoden 56.00% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy In average | 2026-10-14 this poll | 500 LV | ±4.50 | Dan Ahlers 36.00% | Larry Rhoden 56.00% |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) D-sponsored In average | 2026-10-08 this poll | 400 LV | ±4.90 | Dan Ahlers 38.00% | Larry Rhoden 48.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 South Dakota governor's race?
Larry Rhoden leads Dan Ahlers 53.3% to 37.3% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+16.0 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 South Dakota governor's race competitive?
No — the PollingSource polling average rates it Safe R for Republicans.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 South Dakota governor's race say?
The most recent poll in our average, from Emerson (completed October 21, 2026), found Dan Ahlers (D) at 38% and Larry Rhoden (R) at 56%.
When is the 2026 South Dakota governor's race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
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