With 6 days until Election Day, three new generic ballot surveys released this week all show Democrats ahead, but by varying margins, underscoring that the overall size of any Democratic wave remains the central unresolved question of the cycle. Meanwhile, closing-week campaign travel in Texas and Florida shows both parties leaning on marquee surnames to shore up contested seats.
Generic Ballot: Democratic Edge Persists Across Pollsters
Three surveys fielded in the past week put Democrats ahead on the generic congressional ballot: NPR/PBS/Marist has Democrats at 52 percent to Republicans' 44, Harvard-Harris shows a narrower 52-48 split, and Economist/YouGov puts the gap at 50-41. All three were completed between October 25 and October 26. The spread between pollsters — from an 4-point edge in the Harvard-Harris survey to an 11-point edge for Economist/YouGov — illustrates that while the direction of the generic ballot is consistent, its magnitude is not, a distinction that matters for translating national sentiment into seat-by-seat outcomes.
Michigan: Conflicting Numbers From the Same Pollster
The Michigan Senate race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers produced two incompatible results from Glengariff Group surveys of the same 600 likely voters fielded through October 22. One release, carried by the Detroit News, shows El-Sayed leading Rogers 51.4 to 45.1 percent; a second release attributed to Glengariff and cited by ClickOnDetroit shows El-Sayed at just 4. Separately, Republican Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio campaigned for Rogers and clashed publicly with El-Sayed over Moreno's past work at a used car dealership, according to the Daily Signal, as immigration has emerged as a flashpoint in the race per RealClearPolitics reporting on an El-Sayed campaign stop in Detroit.
Texas: Trump and Talarico Hold Dueling Rallies
President Trump and Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico held competing rallies across Texas this week, with Trump making stops in Corpus Christi and Lubbock on his fourth campaign trip to the state, according to The Hill. At the Lubbock rally, Trump announced a proposal to loosen methane regulations for oil and gas producers while campaigning for Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton. No recent horse-race polling of the Texas Senate contest was included in today's data.
Florida and Georgia: Governors Race Attention and a House Battleground Map
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is set to campaign alongside Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds, according to Florida Politics, their first joint appearance in weeks ahead of the Florida governor race, where an Echelon Insights poll completed October 23 shows Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly 50 to 44 percent. In Georgia, Ballotpedia has identified 23 battleground districts out of 180 state House seats up for election, with Republicans holding a 99-81 majority; Democrats would need to flip 10 seats to take control, while Republicans would need 21 additional seats for a veto-proof supermajority.
Watch tomorrow for additional state-level surveys as the final pre-election polling window narrows, along with any clarifying releases from Glengariff Group on the Michigan Senate and governor numbers.
Polls
| National Generic View race View race NPR/PBS/Marist (n=1289 LV) · Field ended Oct 25 | Democrats 52% · Republicans 44% |
| National Generic View race View race Harvard-Harris · Field ended Oct 26 | Democrats 52% · Republicans 48% |
| National Generic View race View race Economist/YouGov (n=1263 LV) · Field ended Oct 26 | Democrats 50% · Republicans 41% |
| AZ Governor View race View race HighGround, Inc. (n=400 LV) · Field ended Oct 25 | Katie Hobbs 52% · Andy Biggs 39% |
| AZ Governor View race View race RedBox Research (D) (n=2686 LV) · Field ended Oct 23 | Katie Hobbs 47% · Andy Biggs 42% |
| CA Governor View race View race SurveyUSA (n=799 LV) · Field ended Oct 24 | Xavier Becerra 54% · Steve Hilton 32% |
| CA Governor View race View race PPIC (n=1086 LV) · Field ended Oct 22 | Xavier Becerra 61% · Steve Hilton 37% |
| FL Governor View race View race Echelon Insights (n=515 LV) · Field ended Oct 23 | David Jolly 44% · Byron Donalds 50% |
Follow the Money
Texas Senate: Talarico Posts Nine-Figure Haul
The most striking number in this batch comes from the Texas Senate race, where Democrat James Talarico's campaign reported $146.3 million in total receipts against $136.4 million in disbursements, leaving $9.9 million in the bank. The scale of that fundraising dwarfs every other filing in this release and points to a race drawing national money with six days until the November 3 election.
Georgia and Ohio: Two More Senate Democrats Report Big Numbers, Thin Cash
In Georgia, Democrat Jon Ossoff's Senate campaign raised $115.9 million and spent $105.8 million, ending with $15.1 million on hand — the largest cash cushion among the Senate filings here. Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown's Senate campaign reported a smaller but still substantial $68.4 million in receipts and $64.0 million spent, leaving just $4.5 million in reserve. Both campaigns show the pattern common across this group of filings: heavy spending has eaten deeply into what was raised, with cash-on-hand totals running far below total receipts as the election nears.
Michigan and North Carolina Round Out the Senate Money Picture
Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed's Senate campaign reported $53.8 million raised and $51.1 million spent, leaving $2.7 million on hand — the tightest cash position of any Senate filing in this batch. North Carolina Democrat Roy Cooper's Senate campaign raised $49.6 million, spent $40.5 million, and retained $9.1 million. The remaining filings — covering House races in Virginia, New Jersey, and Tennessee involving Gerald Connolly, Ahsen Mujeeb Malik, Andres Jinete, Thomas Perriello, and Mark Green — arrived without dollar figures reported.
Headlines
- Trump and Talarico hold dueling Texas rallies (The Hill)
President Trump and Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico held competing rallies across Texas one week bef... - Trump announces proposal to loosen methane rules for oil and gas production (The Hill)
President Trump announced plans to loosen methane regulations for oil and gas producers during a rally in Lubbock, Te... - Ballotpedia identifies 23 battleground districts in 2026 Georgia House elections (Ballotpedia News)
Ballotpedia has identified 23 battleground districts in Georgia's 2026 House elections, where all 180 seats will be c...
What to Watch
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5 governor races are rated Toss-up: Georgia, Kansas, Nevada, Ohio, and Oregon.
What to Watch Before Election Day
Every state on the map holds its general election on November 3, now 6 days away, and the field is locked everywhere listed here — there is no remaining filing or qualification activity to track. Attention this week turns to final polling, early-vote returns, and turnout patterns rather than candidate fields.
Virginia's 1st and 2nd districts and Ohio's 7th, 9th and 15th are also Toss-ups worth tracking into Tuesday. With early voting underway nationally, turnout figures out of Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania will be the most useful early signal before polls close.
New Polls (41)
Added to the Archive (2)
Older polls newly added to the PollingSource database — fieldwork predates the last two weeks. Full results on each race page.
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