Primary
Primary election: Tuesday, August 18, 2026
Full calendar and every race: Florida primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.
Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | 2026-07-15 | 469 LV | ±4.50 | Kathy Castor 46.00% | Mike Beltran 38.00% |
| St. Pete Polls | 2026-07-15 | 469 LV | ±4.50 | Kathy Castor 46.00% | Kevin Steele 39.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 FL-14 House race?
Kathy Castor leads Mike Beltran 46% to 38.5% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+7.5 margin based on 2 polls from the last 90 days.
Is the 2026 FL-14 House race competitive?
It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the PollingSource polling average rates it Likely D, meaning Democrats are clearly favored but an upset is not impossible. Note: our polling average (Likely D) diverges from the expert consensus (Likely R) — that gap makes this a race to watch.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 FL-14 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from St. Pete Polls (completed July 15, 2026), found Kathy Castor (D) at 46% and Mike Beltran (R) at 38%.
When is the 2026 FL-14 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
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