Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kathy Castor ✓ | — | — |
Republican Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Beltran ✓ | 25,850 | 45.6% | |
| Kevin M. Steele | 17,130 | 30.2% | |
| Bea Valenti | 5,425 | 9.6% | |
| Robert "Rocky" Rochford | 4,044 | 7.1% | |
| John Peters | 1,573 | 2.8% | |
| Michael Marcel | 1,016 | 1.8% | |
| Ergin "Batman" Tek | 969 | 1.7% | |
| Gavriel E. Soriano | 693 | 1.2% |
Full calendar and every race: Florida primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
PollingSource average — the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days). This is an average, not a forecast.
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General Election Polling Average
No scientific polls in the last 30 days — the figure is the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer when fewer exist, not a 30-day mean. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | 2026-07-15 | 469 LV | ±4.50 | Kathy Castor 46.00% | Mike Beltran 38.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 FL-14 House race?
Kathy Castor leads Mike Beltran 46% to 38% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+8.0 margin based on the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days).
Is the 2026 FL-14 House race competitive?
Yes — the expert consensus rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 FL-14 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from St. Pete Polls (completed July 15, 2026), found Kathy Castor (D) at 46% and Mike Beltran (R) at 38%.
When is the 2026 FL-14 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average on this page is the last three qualifying scientific public polls of the locked matchup, or fewer — the newest of them is older than 30 days, so this is not a 30-day mean and it does not set the rating. We do not exclude pollsters. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated 31 min ago
Top Spenders
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $6,631,679
- HMP Dem-aligned $3,575,937
- LCV VICTORY FUND Dem-aligned $1,140,417
- FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND GOP-aligned $777,130
- EDF ACTION VOTES Dem-aligned $512,585
- CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION GOP-aligned $455,986
- CFFE PAC Dem-aligned $425,000
- ELECT DEMOCRATIC WOMEN Dem-aligned $349,300
- PROJECT 218 Dem-aligned $269,175
- PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECT Dem-aligned $253,299
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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