Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kathy Castor ✓ | — | — |
Republican Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Beltran ✓ | 25,850 | 45.6% | |
| Kevin M. Steele | 17,130 | 30.2% | |
| Bea Valenti | 5,425 | 9.6% | |
| Robert "Rocky" Rochford | 4,044 | 7.1% | |
| John Peters | 1,573 | 2.8% | |
| Michael Marcel | 1,016 | 1.8% | |
| Ergin "Batman" Tek | 969 | 1.7% | |
| Gavriel E. Soriano | 693 | 1.2% |
Full calendar and every race: Florida primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — newest qualifying poll of the locked matchup (no polls in the last 30 days). This is an average, not a forecast.
Share
Race page
Candidates
Kathy Castor Nominee Incumbent
Democrat
General Election Polling Average
No scientific polls in the last 30 days — the figure is the newest qualifying poll of the locked matchup (n=1), not a 30-day mean; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | 2026-07-15 | 469 LV | ±4.50 | Kathy Castor 46.00% | Mike Beltran 38.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 FL-14 House race?
Kathy Castor leads Mike Beltran 46% to 38% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+8.0 margin based on the newest qualifying poll of the locked matchup (no polls in the last 30 days).
Is the 2026 FL-14 House race competitive?
Yes — the expert consensus rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 FL-14 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from St. Pete Polls (completed July 15, 2026), found Kathy Castor (D) at 46% and Mike Beltran (R) at 38%.
When is the 2026 FL-14 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average on this page is the newest qualifying scientific public poll of the locked matchup — there were no scientific polls in the last 30 days, so this is not a 30-day mean. We do not exclude pollsters. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated 7 hours ago
Top Spenders
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $4,770,225
- HMP Dem-aligned $1,890,656
- FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND GOP-aligned $695,444
- EDF ACTION VOTES Dem-aligned $512,585
- CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION GOP-aligned $455,986
- CFFE PAC Dem-aligned $425,000
- LCV VICTORY FUND Dem-aligned $412,420
- ELECT DEMOCRATIC WOMEN Dem-aligned $349,300
- NRDC ACTION VOTES Dem-aligned $250,000
- PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECT Dem-aligned $140,218
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
Race News
No news coverage yet for this race.