Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pia Dandiya ✓ | 26,053 | 68.6% | |
| Kaysia Earley | 11,940 | 31.4% |
Republican Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Askar ✓ | 14,770 | 30.9% | |
| Michael Carbonara | 9,067 | 19.0% | |
| Belinda Keiser | 8,781 | 18.4% | |
| David Burck | 7,504 | 15.7% | |
| Terri Hasdorff | 3,682 | 7.7% | |
| Michael Thompson | 2,614 | 5.5% | |
| Richard Evans | 1,441 | 3.0% |
Full calendar and every race: Florida primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
PollingSource average — the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days). This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
General Election Polling Average
No scientific polls in the last 30 days — the figure is the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer when fewer exist, not a 30-day mean. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-08-31 | Pia Dandiya 46.00% | Casey Askar 44.00% | ||
| Tavern Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-08-12 | 551 LV | ±4.90 | PIa Dandiya 50.00% | Casey Askar 50.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 FL-22 House race?
Pia Dandiya leads Casey Askar 48% to 47% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+1.0 margin based on the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days).
Is the 2026 FL-22 House race competitive?
the expert consensus currently rates this race Tilt R.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 FL-22 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Tulchin Research (D) (completed August 31, 2026), found Pia Dandiya (D) at 46% and Casey Askar (R) at 44%.
When is the 2026 FL-22 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average on this page is the last three qualifying scientific public polls of the locked matchup, or fewer — the newest of them is older than 30 days, so this is not a 30-day mean and it does not set the rating. We do not exclude pollsters. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated 3 hours ago
Top Spenders
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $2,717,731
- CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION Dem-aligned $714,839
- AMERICAN PACT Dem-aligned $336,000
- AMERICAN LIBERTY FOUNDATION GOP-aligned $281,462
- FOR OUR CHILDREN FLORIDA PAC GOP-aligned $206,550
- PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECT Dem-aligned $204,554
- CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC. GOP-aligned $118,336
- AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. GOP-aligned $114,640
- STRONGER AMERICA TOGETHER GOP-aligned $66,186
- MAKING CONGRESS GREAT AGAIN PAC GOP-aligned $48,490
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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