Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pia Dandiya ✓ | 26,053 | 68.6% | |
| Kaysia Earley | 11,940 | 31.4% |
Republican Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Askar ✓ | 14,770 | 30.9% | |
| Michael Carbonara | 9,067 | 19.0% | |
| Belinda Keiser | 8,781 | 18.4% | |
| David Burck | 7,504 | 15.7% | |
| Terri Hasdorff | 3,682 | 7.7% | |
| Michael Thompson | 2,614 | 5.5% | |
| Richard Evans | 1,441 | 3.0% |
Full calendar and every race: Florida primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — newest qualifying poll of the locked matchup (no polls in the last 30 days). This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Pia Dandiya Nominee
Democrat
General Election Polling Average
No scientific polls in the last 30 days — the figure is the newest qualifying poll of the locked matchup (n=1), not a 30-day mean; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-08-31 | Pia Dandiya 46.00% | Casey Askar 44.00% | ||
| Tavern Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-08-12 | 551 LV | ±4.90 | PIa Dandiya 50.00% | Casey Askar 50.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 FL-22 House race?
Pia Dandiya leads Casey Askar 46% to 44% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+2.0 margin based on the newest qualifying poll of the locked matchup (no polls in the last 30 days).
Is the 2026 FL-22 House race competitive?
Yes — the expert consensus rates it Lean R, the current rating band, and the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 FL-22 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Tulchin Research (D) (completed August 31, 2026), found Pia Dandiya (D) at 46% and Casey Askar (R) at 44%.
When is the 2026 FL-22 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average on this page is the newest qualifying scientific public poll of the locked matchup — there were no scientific polls in the last 30 days, so this is not a 30-day mean. We do not exclude pollsters. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated 8 hours ago
Top Spenders
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $2,717,731
- CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION Dem-aligned $714,839
- AMERICAN PACT Dem-aligned $336,000
- AMERICAN LIBERTY FOUNDATION GOP-aligned $281,462
- FOR OUR CHILDREN FLORIDA PAC GOP-aligned $206,550
- AMERICA'S RENEWAL PAC, INC. GOP-aligned $114,640
- CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC. GOP-aligned $113,524
- PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECT Dem-aligned $92,315
- STRONGER AMERICA TOGETHER GOP-aligned $66,186
- MAKING CONGRESS GREAT AGAIN PAC GOP-aligned $48,490
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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