Primary
Democratic Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eliott Rodriguez ✓ | 17,324 | 53.5% | |
| Robin Peguero | 15,051 | 46.5% |
Republican Primary
Held August 18, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maria Elvira Salazar ✓ | 29,093 | 81.3% | |
| V. Michael Arias | 6,682 | 18.7% |
Full calendar and every race: Florida primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
PollingSource average — the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days). This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
María Elvira Salazar Nominee Incumbent
RepublicanGeneral Election Polling Average
No scientific polls in the last 30 days — the figure is the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer when fewer exist, not a 30-day mean. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-09-13 | 600 LV | Eliott Rodriguez 46.00% | María Elvira Salazar 47.00% | |
| Bendixen & Amandi International (D) partisan·D D-sponsored | 2026-08-30 | 600 LV | ±4.00 | Eliott Rodriguez 45.00% | María Elvira Salazar 45.00% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) partisan·D | 2026-03-08 | 451 RV | ±4.61 | Elliot Rodriguez 43.00% | María Elvira Salazar 46.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 FL-27 House race?
María Elvira Salazar leads Eliott Rodriguez 46% to 44.7% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+1.3 margin based on the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days).
Is the 2026 FL-27 House race competitive?
Yes — the expert consensus rates it Lean R, the current rating band, and the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 FL-27 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Tulchin Research (D) (completed September 13, 2026), found Eliott Rodriguez (D) at 46% and María Elvira Salazar (R) at 47%.
When is the 2026 FL-27 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average on this page is the last three qualifying scientific public polls of the locked matchup, or fewer — the newest of them is older than 30 days, so this is not a 30-day mean and it does not set the rating. We do not exclude pollsters. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- AB PAC Dem-aligned $347,540
- LATINO VOTE FOR AMERICA PAC GOP-aligned $160,000
- WORKERS VOTE Dem-aligned $82,156
- LATINOS FOR CONSERVATIVE VALUES GOP-aligned $71,252
- NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE GOP-aligned $53,835
- SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION) Dem-aligned $18,000
- CEDAR KEY PROGRESS Dem-aligned $10,000
- EQUALITY FLORIDA ACTION INC. Dem-aligned $13
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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