Today's polling batch centers on the Michigan Senate race, where three pollsters converged on a similar picture, while Texas voters appear to be sorting their ballots differently by office — backing Republican Greg Abbott for governor while giving Democrat James Talarico a real shot at the Senate seat. Maine's two statewide races also drew fresh surveys showing Democrats ahead in both the Senate and governor's contests, though by different margins depending on pollster.
Michigan Senate: Three Pollsters, One Tight Race
The Michigan Senate race drew three separate surveys this week, all landing within the margin of error. Trafalgar Group, completed September 30, had Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers 47% to 45%. A Fox News poll completed September 28 showed a tighter 50%-49% El-Sayed edge among likely voters. The consistency across pollsters with different methodological houses — Trafalgar on the right, Fox's academic partners in the middle — reinforces PollingSource's Lean D rating even as the numeric gap stays inside four points in every survey.
Texas: Split Verdicts Across the Ballot
Texas voters are polling differently depending on the office, according to data completed September 28. In the governor's race, Republican incumbent-style numbers hold for Greg Abbott, who leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 52% to 47% in both a Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. survey and a separate Fox News poll — consistent with PollingSource's Lean R rating. But in the Senate race, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton, with Beacon Research showing a 53%-46% margin among registered voters and a tighter 51%-49% split among likely voters. The divergence comes as President Trump told Texas and Oklahoma audiences that Paxton is "a pain in the ass" and "a little controversial," rare public friction between Trump and one of his own endorsees weeks before the election.
Maine: Democrats Ahead in Both Statewide Races
Two new surveys of the Maine Senate race show Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican incumbent Susan Collins, with Wedgewood Polls putting the margin at 52%-48% in a survey completed October 1 and Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research showing 50%-47% in a poll completed September 22. In the governor's race, Democrat Hannah Pingree leads Republican Bobby Charles in both surveys — 47%-38% per co/efficient and a wider 52%-39% per Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research, both completed in late September. PollingSource rates the Senate race a toss-up and the governor's race Likely D.
Ohio: Gas Tax Suspension Signed Ahead of Election
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine signed legislation suspending the state's gas tax for 90 days through the election and holiday season, after the measure passed the legislature on Wednesday with support from both parties' gubernatorial candidates, Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. The signing comes as a separate InsiderAdvantage poll completed September 29 in the Ohio Senate race showed Democrat Sherrod Brown leading Republican Jon Husted by a single point, 44% to 43%, within the survey's margin of error.
Watch tomorrow for additional movement in the Arizona governor's race, where Democrat Katie Hobbs faces intensified Republican attacks in a state Trump carried by 5.5 points in 2024, and for any new numbers out of Virginia's 1st and 5th District House contests.
Polls
| AK Governor View race View race Cgynal | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 44% · Bernadette Wilson 24% |
| AL Governor View race View race RMG Research (R) (n=800 RV) | Doug Jones 37% · Tommy Tuberville 50% |
| IA Governor View race View race Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) (n=1008 LV) | Rob Sand 53% · Zach Lahn 44% |
| ME Governor View race View race co/efficient (R) (n=1240 LV) | Hannah Pingree 47% · Bobby Charles 38% |
| ME Governor View race View race Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) (n=982 LV) | Hannah Pingree 52% · Bobby Charles 39% |
| MI Governor View race View race Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) (n=1203 RV) | Jocelyn Benson 54% · John James 45% |
| MI Governor View race View race Fox News Poll (n=1028 LV) | Jocelyn Benson 54% · John James 45% |
| MI Governor View race View race Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research (n=1028 LV) | Jocelyn Benson 54% · John James 45% |
Follow the Money
The Follow the Money section was withheld by a pre-send data check — see pollingsource.com for verified data.
Headlines
- Roll Call marks Darren Soto as nation’s most vulnerable congressional Democrat — Florida Politics
- New Ad Spending in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District — Daily Signal
- Blackburn calls on Tennessee to ‘bring back’ electric chair after botched Christa Pike execution — The Hill
- Arizona one of five Trump-won states where Democrats defend governorships in 2026 — Ballotpedia News
- Supermajority control at stake in Ohio House of Representatives elections on Nov. 3 — Ballotpedia News
What to Watch
Governors' Races Headline the Board
No scheduled events fall within the coming week, but the governor landscape remains the clearest place to track movement. Three races are rated Toss-up: Arizona, Florida, and Georgia. Any new polling in these three will carry outsized weight given the absence of a clear frontrunner in each.
One tier out, Kansas is rated Lean R and Minnesota Lean D — both close enough that a shift in public polling could change the broader map's balance. Iowa, Maine, and Michigan sit at Likely D, while Nebraska and New Hampshire sit at Likely R — worth watching for any rating change that would signal real volatility rather than noise.
With ten governorships rated competitive to some degree, watch for new survey data that could move any of these races between categories, particularly the three toss-ups.
New Polls (24)
How was today's briefing?
Get this briefing in your inbox every morning
Free. No password required. Unsubscribe anytime.